World Cup 2026, matchday two: the week the favourites woke up
A weekend of corrections. The big sides that stuttered in their openers came back hard, a couple of dark horses stalled, and anyone calling exact scores got a lesson in patience.
If you watched the first round of group games and wrote off half the contenders, this week made you look silly. The opening matches of a World Cup are a trap. Teams are nervous, the heat in the host cities is doing real damage, and nobody wants to be the side that loses first. Then the second round arrives, the handbrake comes off, and the table starts telling the truth.
That is more or less the story of the past seven days. The favourites that looked shaky found their range, the group of death stayed honest, and a few sides that flew out of the blocks discovered how quickly a tournament can turn. Here is the week, read the way a predictor reads it.
The big sides stopped flirting with disaster
Germany opened with a 7-1 demolition of Curacao and then had to actually work for a 2-1 win over Ivory Coast, which is closer to what a real group looks like. The Netherlands were the headline act. After being held 2-2 by Japan in a game they should have closed out, they turned around and put five past Sweden. Sweden, for what it is worth, had started with a 5-1 win of their own over Tunisia, which tells you exactly how little an opening result is worth once the second game lands.
The host nations did their part too. Canada followed a draw with a 6-0 battering of Qatar, and the United States backed up an opening win over Paraguay by beating Australia 2-0. Home advantage is real, the travel is brutal for everyone else, and the sides that did not have to fly coast to coast are quietly banking it.
The fast starts that came back to earth
Australia were the cautionary tale. A 2-0 win over Turkiye in the opener had people talking up a deep run, and four days later the United States dismantled them. Turkiye, meanwhile, lost both, including a tight 1-0 to Paraguay that knocked them out of control of their own group. Two games is enough to flip a story completely, and that is the part casual viewers always underrate.
Brazil are the other one to watch. A 1-1 draw with Morocco was not the start anyone in yellow wanted, and although the 3-0 win over Haiti steadied things, Morocco are not going anywhere. That group is going to the final whistle of the final round.
The draws nobody saw coming
This is where the week got interesting if you like an upset. Spain were held 0-0 by Cape Verde. Saudi Arabia took a point off Uruguay in a 1-1. Belgium could only draw 1-1 with Egypt. Iran and New Zealand traded blows in a 2-2 that had no business being as open as it was. None of those were results a model would have spat out, and every one of them wrecked somebody's bracket.
Group stages are where confident calls go to die. The lesson from this week is simple. Do not anchor on the opener, respect the draw as a live outcome rather than a cop-out, and remember that a blowout is almost impossible to nail on the exact scoreline even when you call the winner. Getting the result right is good. Getting close to the margin is what wins leaderboards.
Why the group stage is a predictor's paradise
Knockouts get the drama, but the group stage is where a prediction game actually rewards you. There are dozens of fixtures packed into a fortnight, the gap between the best and worst sides is wide enough to read, and the pressure of qualification forces teams to show their hand. You are not guessing in the dark. You are weighing form, fatigue, and who actually needs the points.
That is the whole appeal of calling scores instead of just picking winners. Anybody can say Germany beat Ivory Coast. Saying 2-1, and watching it land, is a different kind of satisfaction. It is also a lot harder to argue with in the group chat on Monday.
The week ahead
The final round of group games is where it gets ruthless. Teams that have already qualified will rotate, teams on the brink will throw everything forward, and the dead-rubber traps will catch out anyone predicting on reputation alone. If you want a week to test your read on football, this is the one. Pick your scorelines before kickoff, lock them in, and let the results settle the argument.